Egyptians back new constitution in referendum

CAIRO (Reuters) - An Islamist-backed Egyptian constitution won approval in a referendum, rival camps said on Sunday, after a vote the opposition said would sow deep social divisions in the Arab world's most populous nation.

The Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, which propelled President Mohamed Mursi to power in a June election, said an unofficial tally showed 64 percent of voters backed the charter after two rounds of voting that ended with a final ballot on Saturday.

An opposition official also told Reuters their unofficial count showed the result was a "yes" vote, while party spokesmen said there had been a series of abuses during the voting.

The main opposition coalition, the National Salvation Front, responded to the defeat by saying it was moving towards forming a single political party to challenge the Islamists who have dominated the ballot box since strongman Hosni Mubarak was overthrown two years ago.

Members of the opposition, taking heart from a low turnout of about 30 percent of voters, pledged to keep up pressure on Mursi through peaceful protests and other democratic means.

"The referendum is not the end of the road," said Khaled Dawoud, a spokesman for the National Salvation Front. "It is only the beginning of a long struggle for Egypt's future."

The referendum committee may not declare official results for the two rounds until Monday, after hearing appeals. If the outcome is confirmed, a parliamentary election will follow in about two months.

Mursi's Islamist backers say the constitution is vital for the transition to democracy, nearly two years after Mubarak was ousted in a popular uprising. It will provide the stability needed to help a fragile economy, they say.

The constitution was "a historic opportunity to unite all national powers on the basis of mutual respect and honest dialogue for the sake of stabilizing the nation," the Brotherhood said in a statement.

RECIPE FOR UNREST

The opposition accuses Mursi of pushing through a text that favors Islamists and ignores the rights of Christians, who make up about 10 percent of the population, as well as women. They say it is a recipe for further unrest.

The opposition said voting in both rounds was marred by abuses. However, an official said the overall vote favored the charter.

"The majority is not big and the minority is not small," liberal politician Amr Hamzawy said, adding that the National Salvation Front would use "all peaceful, democratic means" such as protests to challenge the constitution.

The vote was split over two days as many judges had refused to supervise the ballot, making a single day of voting impossible.

During the build-up to the vote there were deadly protests, sparked by Mursi's decision to award himself extra powers in a November 22 decree and then to fast-track the constitutional vote.

The new basic law sets a limit of two four-year presidential terms. It says the principles of sharia, Islamic law, remain the main source of legislation but adds an article to explain this. It also says Islamic authorities will be consulted on sharia - a source of concern to Christians and others.

ABUSES

Rights groups reported what they said were illegalities in voting procedures. They said some polling stations opened late, that Islamists illegally campaigned at some polling places, and complained of irregularities in voter registration.

But the committee overseeing the two-stage vote said its investigations showed no major irregularities in voting on December 15, which covered about half of Egypt's 51 million voters. About 25 million were eligible to vote in the second round.

The Brotherhood said turnout was about a third of voters.

The opposition says the constitution will stir up more trouble on the streets since it has not received sufficiently broad backing for a document that should be agreed by consensus, and raised questions about the fairness of the vote.

In the first round, the district covering most of Cairo voted "no," which opponents said showed the depth of division.

"I see more unrest," said Ahmed Said, head of the liberal Free Egyptians Party and a member of the opposition Front.

He cited "serious violations" on the first day of voting, and said anger against Mursi was growing. "People are not going to accept the way they are dealing with the situation."

At least eight people were killed in protests outside the presidential palace in Cairo this month. Islamists and rivals clashed in Alexandria, the second-biggest city, on the eves of both voting days.

(Writing by Edmund Blair and Giles Elgood; editing by Philippa Fletcher)

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Ferrari joins green revolution

MARANELLO, Italy: Italy's red racing giant Ferrari wants to go green, cutting emissions without sacrificing horsepower and working on a new hybrid model set to thrill pro-environment speed junkies.

"We're working on reducing energy consumption without forgetting that the symbol of Ferrari is performance," Matteo Lanzavecchia, head of development, told AFP at the luxury car-maker's historic factory in Maranello, a small town in the Emilia Romagna region.

"We've also managed to up horsepower to 100 while still reducing CO2 emissions by 30 percent," he said.

The sleek "California 30", one of the brand's most sought-after models with a price tag of 180,000 euros ($239,000), has been vamped up with the new technology -- extra horsepower but weighing 30 kilogrammes (66 pounds) less than the previous version.

"We're going all out, not just using the lightest materials but making adjustments across the board. We have improved the brake system to reduce friction and the fan to reduce energy consumption," Lanzavecchia said.

And the green drive does not stop there: among the towering steel machines on the Maranello factory floor trees have been planted to control the air's humidity levels.

The most recent buildings have also been built with vast glass bays to allow more light in and slash electricity consumption.

The hybrid car -- set to hit salesrooms in the next few months -- aims to lure customers not only with its green credentials but also the promise of an off-piste taste of a Formula One experience.

It will have the Kinetic energy recovery system (KERS) used in the famous racer -- which recovers energy during braking and stores it for future use -- "to reduce consumption but also capture the thrill of driving a Ferrari", Lanzavecchia said.

The luxury brand has managed to avoid fallout from the economic crisis which hit the standard automobile industry.

Last year, 7,200 Ferraris were sold around the world, up 10 percent from 2010, and the company's turnover this year has shot up over the two billion euro level for the first time in its history.

As well as focussing on emerging markets, the brand has been tempting clients with "personal stylist" services and gadgets to gussy up the inside of gleaming new Ferraris.

"There are opportunities all over the world. Of course, we are more prudent about some markets such as Europe, but there are others where the economy is growing -- China, Indonesia, Malaysia or the United States," commercial director Enrico Galliera said.

For a small fee -- up to half the cost of the vehicle -- customers can personalise the car's interior with cashmere, peccary or teak and choose their favourite model of seats, seat-belt, HI-FI system and touch-screen.

"We have personal designers who help the client choose and give him advice," Nicola Boari, head of the personal shopper system, said in the factory's workshop.

Nearby, women in red overalls cut out metres of fabric for the cars' interiors, tailoring them specially for each new owner.

Anything goes -- as long as it stays within the limits of good taste and conforms to Ferrari's glossy and seductive "Italian style".

"We would never let a Ferrari leave our factory with crocodile-leather seats or our trademark horse symbol done in diamonds," one of the stylists said.

The extras may cost, but that does not seem to put eager customers off -- around 98 percent of them choose to jazz up their brand new racers.

- AFP/al

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Putin targets arms deals, doubling trade on India visit today

NEW DELHI: Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged to tighten defence ties with India and double levels of bilateral trade within three years as he headed to New Delhi for a summit on Monday.

Accompanied by several senior ministers and military officials, Putin will meet Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on a one-day visit designed to highlight the strong ties between two traditional allies and fellow BRICS.

"I would like to stress that deepening of friendship and cooperation with India is among the top priorities of our foreign policy," Putin wrote in an article for The Hindu, an Indian daily, ahead of his visit.

India is now the world's largest arms importer and Russian-made military equipment accounts for 70 per cent of Indian arms supplies.

However, while Russia once had a virtual monopoly over India's arms market, New Delhi has been shopping around of late and the visit is seen in Moscow as a chance to regain lost ground and develop joint projects.

"The strategic nature of partnership between India and Russia is witnessed by the unprecedented level of our military and technical cooperation," Putin wrote in his article, saying "the joint development of advanced armaments rather than just purchasing military products" would be key to future relations.

His comments echoed those of Indian Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid who said Friday that "India is committed to strengthening and enhancing this relationship, both on economic and strategic ties".

"There is a lot of work in progress and a lot of issues and agreements will be taken up," he told reporters.

The Kremlin has said that a number of major contracts on military-technical cooperation would be inked during the visit — Putin's first to South Asia since his return to the Kremlin in May.

Likely tie-ups are expected to involve Russia's Sukhoi aircraft manufacturer, including a $3.77 billion deal for 42 Su-30MKI fighters and a deal to produce the fifth generation Sukhoi fighter — a joint Russia-India project, according to Igor Korotchenko, director of the Centre for Analysis of World Arms Trade.

Moscow has been worried recently by New Delhi's increasing preference for western suppliers, especially after Boeing was chosen last month over Russia's MiL plant for a major helicopter contract.

India has also been unhappy with delays of deliveries of some naval equipment, notably of the aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov, which is being refurbished for the Indian Navy at Russia's Sevmash naval yard.

Russia was originally to deliver the upgraded vessel in August 2008, but the date has now been pushed back to the end of 2013, while the price has more than doubled to $2.3 billion.

According to Indian government figures, bilateral trade has been growing steadily and is expected to reach around 10 billion dollars in 2012, up from 7.5 billion in 2009.

Putin set out a goal of doubling bilateral trade in just three years.

"Our trade turnover has overcome the consequences of global crisis, and in 2012 we expect to reach record numbers, over $10 billion. Our next goal is to reach $20 bln already by 2015," he said.

Russia and India are both so-called BRICS, the bloc of emerging powers which is seeking to act as a counterweight to western powers and which also includes Brazil, China and South Africa.

India is hoping Russia will help it achieve its ambition of joining an expanded UN Security Council which currently only has five permanent members — Russia, China, the United States, France and Britain.

The Kremlin said that Russia sees India "as one of the worthy and strong candidates for a permanent seat in the expanded UN Security Council".

As well as his talks with Singh, Putin is also due to meet the ruling Congress party chief Sonia Gandhi and Sushma Swaraj, leader of the opposition BJP.

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Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

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Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

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AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

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Obama, Congress Waving Bye-Bye Lower Taxes?

The first family arrived in the president's idyllic home state of Hawaii early today to celebrate the holidays, but President Obama, who along with Michelle will pay tribute Sunday to the late Sen. Daniel Inouye at the National Memorial Cemetery of the Pacific, could be returning home to Washington sooner than he expected.

That's because the President didn't get his Christmas wish: a deal with Congress on the looming fiscal cliff.

Members of Congress streamed out of the Capitol Friday night with no agreement to avert the fiscal cliff -- a massive package of mandatory tax increases and federal spending cuts triggered if no deal is worked out to cut the deficit. Congress is expected to be back in session by Thursday.

It's unclear when President Obama may return from Hawaii. His limited vacation time will not be without updates on continuing talks. Staff members for both sides are expected to exchange emails and phone calls over the next couple of days.

Meanwhile, Speaker of the House John Boehner is home in Ohio. He recorded the weekly GOP address before leaving Washington, stressing the president's role in the failure to reach an agreement on the cliff.

"What the president has offered so far simply won't do anything to solve our spending problem and begin to address our nation's crippling debt," he said in the recorded address, "The House has done its part to avert this entire fiscal cliff. ... The events of the past week make it clearer than ever that these measures reflect the will of the House."

Fiscal Cliff Negotiations Halted for Christmas Watch Video

Cliffhanger: Congress Heads Home after 'Plan B' Vote Pulled from House Floor Watch Video

Fiscal Cliff: Boehner Doesn't Have Votes for Plan B Watch Video

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell echoed the sentiment while lamenting the failure to reach a compromise.

"I'm stuck here in Washington trying to prevent my fellow Kentuckians having to shell out more money to Uncle Sam next year," he said.

McConnell is also traveling to Hawaii to attend the Inouye service Sunday.

If the White House and Congress cannot reach a deficit-cutting budget agreement by year's end, by law the across-the-board tax hikes and spending cuts -- the so called fiscal cliff -- will go into effect. Many economists say that will likely send the economy into a new recession.

Reports today shed light on how negotiations fell apart behind closed doors. The Wall Street Journal, citing unnamed sources, reported that when Boehner expressed his opposition to tax rate increases, the president allegedly responded, "You are asking me to accept Mitt Romney's tax plan. Why would I do that?"

The icy exchange continued when, in reference to Boehner's offer to secure $800 billion in revenue by limiting deductions, the speaker reportedly implored the president, "What do I get?"

The president's alleged response: "You get nothing. I get that for free."

The account is perhaps the most thorough and hostile released about the series of unsuccessful talks Obama and Boehner have had in an effort to reach an agreement about the cliff.

Unable to agree to a "big deal" on taxes and entitlements, the president is now reportedly hoping to reach a "small deal" with Republicans to avoid the fiscal cliff.

Such a deal would extend unemployment benefits and set the tone for a bigger deal with Republicans down the line.

In his own weekly address, Obama called this smaller deal "an achievable goal ... that can get done in 10 days."

But though there is no definitive way to say one way or the other whether it really is an achievable goal, one thing is for certain: Republican leadership does not agree with the president on this question.

Of reaching an agreement on the fiscal cliff by the deadline, Boehner said, "How we get there, God only knows."

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Egypt's constitution approved in vote, say rival camps

CAIRO (Reuters) - A constitution drafted by an Islamist-dominated assembly was approved by a majority of Egyptians in a referendum, rival camps said on Sunday, after a vote the opposition said drove a wedge through the Arab world's most populous nation.

The Muslim Brotherhood, which propelled President Mohamed Mursi to power in a June election, said 64 percent of voters backed the charter after two rounds of voting that ended with a final ballot on Saturday. It cited an unofficial tally.

An opposition official also told Reuters their unofficial count showed the result was a "yes" vote.

The referendum committee may not declare official results for the two rounds until Monday, after hearing appeals. If the outcome is confirmed, a parliamentary election will follow in about two months.

Mursi's Islamist backers say the constitution is vital for the transition to democracy, nearly two years after the overthrow of autocrat Hosni Mubarak in an uprising. It will provide stability needed to help a fragile economy, they say.

But the opposition accuses Mursi of pushing through a text that favors Islamists and ignores the rights of Christians, who make up about 10 percent of the population, as well as women. They say it is a recipe for further unrest.

"According to our calculations, the final result of the second round is 71 percent voting 'yes' and the overall result (of the two rounds) is 63.8 percent," a Brotherhood official, who was in an operations room monitoring the vote, told Reuters.

His figures were confirmed by a statement issued shortly afterwards by the group and broadcast on its television channel.

The Brotherhood and its party, as well as members of the opposition, had representatives monitoring polling stations and the vote count across the country.

The opposition said voting in both rounds was marred by abuses and had called for a re-run after the first stage. However, an official said the overall vote favored the charter.

"They (Islamists) are ruling the country, running the vote and influencing the people, so what else could we expect," the senior official from the main opposition coalition, the National Salvation Front, told Reuters.

PROTESTS

The vote was split over two days as many judges had refused to supervise the ballot.

"I'm voting 'no' because Egypt can't be ruled by one faction," said Karim Nahas, 35, a stockbroker, heading to a polling station in Giza, in greater Cairo, in the last round.

At another polling station, some voters said they were more interested in ending Egypt's long period of political instability than in the Islamist aspects of the charter.

"We have to extend our hands to Mursi to help fix the country," said Hisham Kamal, an accountant.

The build-up to the vote witnessed deadly protests, sparked by Mursi's decision to award himself extra powers in a decree on November 22 and then to fast-track the constitution to a vote.

Hours before polls closed, Vice President Mahmoud Mekky announced his resignation. He said he wanted to quit last month but stayed on to help Mursi tackle the crisis that blew up when the Islamist leader assumed wide powers.

Mekky, a prominent judge who said he was uncomfortable in politics, disclosed earlier he had not been informed of Mursi's power grab. The timing of his resignation appeared linked to the lack of a vice-presidential post under the draft constitution.

The new basic law sets a limit of two four-year presidential terms. It says the principles of Islamist sharia law remain the main source of legislation but adds an article to explain this. It also says Islamic authorities will be consulted on sharia - a source of concern to Christians and others.

TURNOUT

Rights groups reported what they said were illegalities in voting procedures. They said some polling stations opened late, that Islamists illegally campaigned at some polling places and complained of irregularities in voter registration.

But the committee overseeing the two-stage vote said its investigations showed no major irregularities in voting on December 15, which covered about half of Egypt's 51 million voters. About 25 million were eligible to vote in the second round.

The Brotherhood said turnout was about a third of voters.

The opposition says the constitution will stir up more trouble on the streets since it has not received sufficiently broad backing for a document that should be agreed by consensus, and raised questions about the fairness of the vote.

In the first round, the district covering most of Cairo voted "no," which opponents said showed the depth of division.

"I see more unrest," said Ahmed Said, head of the liberal Free Egyptians Party and a member of the National Salvation Front, an opposition coalition formed after Mursi expanded his powers on November 22 and then pushed the constitution to a vote.

He cited "serious violations" on the first day of voting, and said anger against Mursi was growing. "People are not going to accept the way they are dealing with the situation."

At least eight people were killed in protests outside the presidential palace in Cairo this month. Islamists and rivals clashed in Alexandria, the second-biggest city, on the eves of both voting days.

Late on Saturday, Mursi announced the names of 90 new members he had appointed to the upper house of parliament, state media reported, and a presidential official said the list was mainly liberals and other non-Islamists.

A spokesman for the National Salvation Front, which groups opponents who include liberals, socialists and other parties and politicians, said the Front's members had refused to take part.

Legislative powers, now held by Mursi because the lower house of parliament was dissolved earlier this year, will pass to the upper house under the new constitution.

Two-thirds of the 270-member upper house was elected in a vote this year, with one third appointed by the president. Mursi, elected in June, had not named them until now. Mursi's Islamist party and its allies dominate the assembly.

(Writing by Edmund Blair and Giles Elgood; Editing by Mark Trevelyan and Todd Eastham)

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Euro survives 2012, further tests in store

BRUSSELS: The battered euro, written off as a dud many times during a crisis-wracked year, appears to have survived 2012, but 2013 could prove just as difficult if the economy continues to struggle.

It finished the year strongly after the 17 eurozone nations earlier this month nailed down a deal to supply long-delayed bailout funds to Greece to keep the country afloat, and the bloc intact.

Athens in turn delivered on its part of the bargain -- more stinging austerity, economic reforms and a tight budget -- all with the aim of cutting its massive debt burden to a more sustainable 124 percent of GDP by 2020.

Then progress towards tighter economic and fiscal coordination in the eurozone, and a key first step towards a shared bank supervision regime, rounded out the gains, leaving the Europe in much better shape than seemed likely at the beginning of the year.

"Many observers felt it was all over for Greece (and its) ... remaining in the eurozone. As year-end approaches, we know that these Casandras were wrong," EU Economics Commissioner Olli Rehn said.

For many months, all analysts could talk about was Greece's likely exit from the eurozone and what it would mean for the bloc's future.

Now, "the likelihood of a member state leaving the eurozone is gone," said Janis Emmanouilidis of the European Policy Centre (EPC) think-tank.

Reflecting the change, Standard and Poor's raised Greece's sovereign debt rating by a massive six notches because of what it termed the "strong determination of ... (eurozone) member states to preserve Greek membership."

Greek Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras said the decision "was a very important one that created a climate of optimism. But we know that the road is still long and hard, the hour is not one for easing up."

Analysts also highlighted agreement on the eurozone's Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) to regulate its banks, a first step in ring-fencing lenders who get into trouble and threaten financial disaster.

Perhaps the key breakthrough, giving purpose and backing to the other reforms, was a commitment by European Central Bank head Mario Draghi over the summer months to do anything necessary to save the euro.

In September, Draghi said the ECB would buy up the sovereign debt of any eurozone member state without limit, if that is what it took to keep the financial markets in check.

This pledge of 'Outright Monetary Transactions' meant markets' could no longer enjoy a one-way bet against a member state as the ECB could step in on its side.

The immediate result was a sharp easing in borrowing costs, especially for Spain and Italy which had been tipped to follow Greece, Ireland and Portugal in needing a bailout.

That change, backed up a 100 billion euros eurozone lifeline for its banks, allowed the Spanish government to hold the line.

By year-end, few were talking of Madrid as the next debt crisis casualty, with its banks also being stabilised at a much lower-than-expected cost of some 40 billion euros.

Some analysts said it was important not to get too carried away, however.

The outlook for the next two years "looks less unsettled and will be concerned above all with implementing the new supervisory regime and winding up mechanism for the banks," CM-CIC Securities analysts said in a note.

For Barclays, talks on closer integration in the eurozone could prove heated and even chaotic, with the emergence of deep differences running the risk of stoking fresh tensions on the markets.

Above all, the uncertainties for the coming year are political, with elections due in Italy and then Germany, while the situation in "Greece is still on a knife-edge," said Emmanouilidis at the EPC.

The economic outlook is also clouded, with the eurozone in recession and expected to slow further while unemployment runs at a record 11.7 percent, rising to unprecedented levels around 25 percent in Spain and Greece.

Against that background, German Chancellor Merkel's guarded words on the outlook seem appropriate.

"We have already achieved a lot but I think we still have a very difficult time ahead," Merkel said after the last EU leaders summit of the year earlier this month.

- AFP/ck

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Two more toy trains running on Kalka-Shimla route to meet tourist rush

CHANDIGARH: Tourists who are looking forward to celebrating Christmas and New Year in Shimla have a better option to reach the hill station with two more toy trains running on the Kalka-Shimla route from Friday. Seeing the rush from West Bengal and Delhi in particular, Northern Railways started the two toy trains from Kalka to Shimla. The departure timings of these trains from Kalka have been fixed in such a manner that it gets connected with other trains' arrival at Kalka.

The first toy train with a capacity of about 100 passengers leaves at 6.30am. All coaches are first class. The timings of this train are such that those arriving on board Howrah-Kalka mail at 4.30am can board it. The second toy train departs at 12.45pm and is connected with the Himalayan Queen and Shatabdi from Delhi arriving at Kalka at 11.20 am and 11.40am, respectively. This toy train has first and second class bogies with a total capacity of about 150 people.

"We have started two toy trains and timings have been fixed in such a manner that it gets connected with the other trains arriving at Kalka. These two trains will continue its services till the first week of January, but seeing the rush it can be extended also," said P K Sanghi, DRM, Ambala division.

Apart from these two toy trains, Northern Railways is already running five toy trains from Kalka to Shimla.

The 97-km track, figuring in UNESCO world heritage list, has over 900 sharp curves besides 102 tunnels and 988 bridges. It is the sharp curves which have made the proposal of increasing speed of the trains not feasible as it could result in accidents on the curves, sources said.

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Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

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Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

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AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

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Obama Still an 'Optimist' on Cliff Deal

Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

WASHINGTON D.C. – Ten days remain before the mandatory spending cuts and tax increases known as the “fiscal cliff” take effect, but President Obama said he is still a “hopeless optimist” that a federal budget deal can be reached before the year-end deadline that economists agree might plunge the country back into recession.

“Even though Democrats and Republicans are arguing about whether those rates should go up for the wealthiest individuals, all of us – every single one of us -agrees that tax rates shouldn’t go up for the other 98 percent of Americans, which includes 97 percent of small businesses,” he said.

He added that there was “no reason” not to move forward on that aspect, and that it was “within our capacity” to resolve.

The question of whether to raise taxes on incomes over $250,000 remains at an impasse, but is only one element of nuanced legislative wrangling that has left the parties at odds.

For ABC News’ breakdown of the rhetoric versus the reality, click here.

At the White House news conference this evening, the president confirmed he had spoken today to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., and House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, although no details of the conversations were disclosed.

The talks came the same day Speaker Boehner admitted “God only knows” the solution to the gridlock, and a day after mounting pressure from within his own Republican Party forced him to pull his alternative proposal from a prospective House vote. That proposal, ”Plan B,” called for extending current tax rates for Americans making up to $1 million a year, a far wealthier threshold than Democrats have advocated.

Boehner acknowledged that even the conservative-leaning “Plan B” did not have the support necessary to pass in the Republican-dominated House, leaving a resolution to the fiscal cliff in doubt.

“In the next few days, I’ve asked leaders of Congress to work towards a package that prevents a tax hike on middle-class Americans, protects unemployment insurance for 2 million Americans, and lays the groundwork for further work on both growth and deficit reduction,” Obama said. ”That’s an achievable goal.  That can get done in 10 days.”

Complicating matters: The halls of Congress are silent tonight. The House of Representatives began its holiday recess Thursday and Senate followed this evening.

Meanwhile, the president has his own vacation to contend with. Tonight, he was embarking for Hawaii and what is typically several weeks of Christmas vacation.

However, during the press conference the president said he would see his congressional colleagues “next week” to continue negotiations, leaving uncertain how long Obama plans to remain in the Aloha State.

The president said he hoped the time off would give leaders “some perspective.”

“Everybody can cool off; everybody can drink some eggnog, have some Christmas cookies, sing some Christmas carols, enjoy the company of loved ones,” he said. “And then I’d ask every member of Congress, while they’re back home, to think about that.  Think about the obligations we have to the people who sent us here.

“This is not simply a contest between parties in terms of who looks good and who doesn’t,” he added later. “There are real-world consequences to what we do here.”

Obama concluded by reiterating that neither side could walk away with “100 percent” of its demands, and that it negotiations couldn’t remain “a contest between parties in terms of who looks good and who doesn’t.”

Boehner’s office reacted quickly to the remarks, continuing recent Republican statements that presidential leadership was at fault for the ongoing gridlock.

“Though the president has failed to offer any solution that passes the test of balance, we remain hopeful he is finally ready to get serious about averting the fiscal cliff,” Boehner said. “The House has already acted to stop all of the looming tax hikes and replace the automatic defense cuts. It is time for the Democratic-run Senate to act, and that is what the speaker told the president tonight.”

The speaker’s office said Boehner “will return to Washington following the holiday, ready to find a solution that can pass both houses of Congress.”

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